وثيقة

Firm dynamics and bankruptcy processes : A new theoretical model

مؤلف
وكيل مرتبط
Aktan, B, مؤلف مشارك
Burton, B, مؤلف مشارك
عنوان الدورية
Journal of Forecasting
دولة النشر
Kingdom of Bahrain
مكان النشر
Sakhir . Bahrain
الناشر
University of Bahrain
تاريخ النشر
2022
اللغة
الإنجليزية الوسطى (1100-1500)
الملخص الإنجليزي
Abstract: This paper introduces a theoretical model that relates firm dynamics to bankruptcy processes on both univariate and multivariate bases. The distinctiveness of the study lies in the estimation of default using a framework where firm dynamics are linked to the bankruptcy process itself. The structure builds on theoretical relations among the constructs viewed from a perspective sufficiently wide to demonstrate value addition and dilution. The univariate-based estimation results indicate that the variables determined via the model successfully differentiate distressed firms from non-distressed and other firms, although the evidence from the multivariate analysis facilitate a 90%+ correct distressed/non-distressed classification rate for both 1- and 2-year periods. The findings provide a road map for selecting the most appropriate default prediction variables and identifying the role of each in the prediction process. The prediction accuracy of the model does not depend solely upon statistical techniques but also reflects each variable's theoretical underpinning. The model is shown to be useful for firm rating in general and credit approval decisions in particular.
المجموعة
المعرف
https://digitalrepository.uob.edu.bh/id/87675146-6760-4f7a-8831-9439488c4268