Document
Budget and cost contingency cart models for power plant projects
Linked Agent
Title of Periodical
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
Issue published
2022 Volume 28 Issue 8: 680–695
Country of Publication
Lithuania
Place Published
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
Publisher
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
Date Issued
2022
Language
English
Subject
English Abstract
Abstract:
Cost overruns are a ubiquitous feature of construction projects, and realistic budgeting at the development stage plays a significant role in their control. However, the application of existing models to budgeting for power plant projects is restricted by the limited amount of project-specific cost data available. This study overcomes this by using a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) approach involving mixed methods of website visits, document study, and expert opinion to predict the amount of project cost (PC) and cost contingency (CC) needed to cover probable cost increases by the use of models containing readily available project attributes and national economic parameters at the project development stage. The modeling process is demonstrated and tested with a case study involving 58 Bangladeshi power plant projects – pro-ducing average absolute errors ranging from 0.7% to 1.7% and enabling project cost, inflation rate, and GDP to be identi-fied as significant factors affecting PC and CC modeling. The approach can be applied to predict the PC during preliminary budgeting and selecting a project type and location aligned to the country’s economic status and policy-making strategies, thus facilitating further investment decisions.
Member of
Identifier
https://digitalrepository.uob.edu.bh/id/9903dce4-63d4-4d73-afdc-7b9adc26ca25
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