وثيقة

Black‑Litterman model with copula‑based views in mean‑CVaR portfolio optimization framework with weight constraints

وكيل مرتبط
Evgeniia, Mikova , مؤلف مشارك
Munir, Qaiser , مؤلف مشارك
Pivnitskaya, Nataliya , مؤلف مشارك
عنوان الدورية
Economic Change and Restructuring
الناشر
The Author(s)
تاريخ النشر
2023
اللغة
الأنجليزية
الملخص الإنجليزي
Abstract: This study examines the portfolio optimization problem by exploiting daily data of 10 international Exchange Trade Funds (ETF) from 2012 to 2022. We extend the Black-Litterman (BL) approach using ARMA-GARCH-copula-based expected returns as a proxy for investor views and use the CVaR metric as a risk measure in the optimization procedure. The BL approach provides a Bayesian methodology for combining the equilibrium returns and the investor views to produce expected returns. We use Regular Vine (R-vine) copula since it provides a fexible multivariate dependency modeling. The suggested approach is compared against the copulaCVaR portfolio, which likewise a BL copula approach avoids excessive corner solutions that many optimization approaches would generate in case of extreme values of estimated parameters. We compare the performance of these two approaches using out-of-sample back-testing against two benchmarks: Mean–Variance optimizations (MV) and equal weights portfolio (EW). To further reduce the sensitivity of considered strategies to input parameters, we evaluate out-of-sample performance at three levels of maximum weight constraints: 30%, 40%, and 50%. Moreover, in this paper, we consider diferent levels of view confdence—τ in the Black-Litterman model as it signifcantly afects the obtained results and inferences. We calculate and report the portfolios’ tail risks, maximum drawdown, turnover, and the break-even point for all optimization approaches. Our empirical analysis indicates better performance for the CBL portfolio regarding lower tail risk and higher risk-adjusted returns, and the copula-CVaR portfolio is better regarding lower turnover and higher break-even point.
المجموعة
المعرف
https://digitalrepository.uob.edu.bh/id/3042236b-d6ca-456c-a33f-4aa363091525
مواد أخرى لنفس الموضوع
مقال دورية
8
Khaki, Audil Rashid
Elsevier B.V. on behalf of African Institute of Mathematical Sciences
2022