Document
Black‑Litterman model with copula‑based views in mean‑CVaR portfolio optimization framework with weight constraints
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Title of Periodical
Economic Change and Restructuring
Publisher
The Author(s)
Date Issued
2023
Language
English
Subject
English Abstract
Abstract:
This study examines the portfolio optimization problem by exploiting daily data of
10 international Exchange Trade Funds (ETF) from 2012 to 2022. We extend the
Black-Litterman (BL) approach using ARMA-GARCH-copula-based expected
returns as a proxy for investor views and use the CVaR metric as a risk measure
in the optimization procedure. The BL approach provides a Bayesian methodology
for combining the equilibrium returns and the investor views to produce expected
returns. We use Regular Vine (R-vine) copula since it provides a fexible multivariate dependency modeling. The suggested approach is compared against the copulaCVaR portfolio, which likewise a BL copula approach avoids excessive corner solutions that many optimization approaches would generate in case of extreme values of estimated parameters. We compare the performance of these two approaches using out-of-sample back-testing against two benchmarks: Mean–Variance optimizations
(MV) and equal weights portfolio (EW). To further reduce the sensitivity of considered strategies to input parameters, we evaluate out-of-sample performance at three levels of maximum weight constraints: 30%, 40%, and 50%. Moreover, in this paper, we consider diferent levels of view confdence—τ in the Black-Litterman model as it signifcantly afects the obtained results and inferences. We calculate and report
the portfolios’ tail risks, maximum drawdown, turnover, and the break-even point for all optimization approaches. Our empirical analysis indicates better performance for the CBL portfolio regarding lower tail risk and higher risk-adjusted returns, and the copula-CVaR portfolio is better regarding lower turnover and higher break-even point.
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Identifier
https://digitalrepository.uob.edu.bh/id/3042236b-d6ca-456c-a33f-4aa363091525
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